Critical Mass

[Clym Angus]

Appologies for being whistful but I've recently been involved in some futuristic navel gazing and I was wondering if I could ask your thoughts on the matter.

We all know that podcasting has facilitated access to untold talented people, from access to academic texts, access to first time authors, comedy troupes, futuristic visionaries, reviewers, pundits, drama aficionados. etc etc etc.

Whilst this one layer access to talent (and lack there of) is of course to be applauded, I'm starting to wonder where all this is going?
With anyone and everyone (whom has a little knowledge or whom can rip of and rejig code) able to broadcast to the world, I wonder how anyone will find any of it.

There must already be enough podcasts out there for someone to sit solidly for 24 hours a day 7 days a week and still find themselves lagging behind. I think it's bound to top out eventually. Making good audio takes time after all and the best individual with the best will in the world tends to work even better with others.

Maybe thats the way forward, as the podcasting universe cools matter will clump together. As like minded talents attract there will be a flurry of creative activity, dwindling through order thence (eventually) to desolution to await the next creative interaction.

As I said earlier, there is also the issue of finding things. When I look up at the nights sky it tends to leave me feeling a little lost. What I'm failing to say here is do you think that current tools are adequate enough for a continued surge in podcasting? Do you think people will hit they're own personal podlimit and only go searching for fresh fodder through "dead mens shoes". Will the broadcasting industry step in and buy up all the good stuff, as a way of assuring continued advertising revenue?

Go on think about the future!

[Planet Retcon]

I don't know what will happen, but when it does, I want to be there to experience it.  I don't think it is predictable, because nothing like this has ever happened before.  But, whatever does happen, it will be wonderful.

If I had to guess, though, I'd say that eventually the best podcasts will get advertising, either singly or in a group like Podshow (Though I think Podshow is a holdover from old media and will therefore fail) or Trypod.  Those shows will make money, though only the very best will be able to quit their day jobs.  The rest will continue to do it as a hobby until such time as they find a new hobby.

I think that currently there are more podcasts than "ideal" (not my opinion, think of "ideal" the same way Darwin used the word "fit").  We started with 0, which is much less than Ideal.  The nubmer started growing, caught steam, and then passed "ideal" somewhere in the past 2 years.  Or, if I'm wrong, it will pass it soon or at least eventually.  The number will keep rising for a while, and then slow, stop, and the gross number of podcasts will start to shrink back to Ideal, or perhaps shrink below ideal, and kind of do a sine-wave until we get to the ideal.

Then something else that we can't even think of will come out and replace it.

[blob]

I'm not actually a huge podcasting aficionado myself, but I believe that its greatest strength is that it can successfully speak to smaller audiences.  There's nothing wrong with small audiences, and the mainstream media needs to stop being afraid of them.  I don't think there can be too many podcasts or other forms of media because they don't all (and shouldn't all) appeal to everyone.  Take Firefly for an example.  How much better off would us Browncoats be if they just aimed for the couple million of us there are, instead of trying to reach the world?  Sure, the shows would be shot on a lower budget, but they could easily make a living making Firefly for those of us who want to see it.

As to getting the word out, well, in general I believe that cream does rise to the top, particularly given the truly democratic nature of the internet.  Most decent shows will eventually, through word-of-mouth or self-promotion, catch a high-profile listener or two.  And by that, I mean someone who has already garnered a sizeable (but small by MSM standards) audience.  Folks like Gabe & Tycho or Rob Malda.  Those people will likely talk about the show in their blogs/comics/shows and that will gain the show a number of listeners, probably some with a fairly high profile, and so on.

In our case in particular, I think that if we can continue to improve at this as we have done in the past year, it's inevitable that we'll attract a larger fan base.

[Planet Retcon]

I want to again make it clear that I wasn't talking about there being "Too many podcasts" as a value judgement.  I was saying it the same way that Darwin said "Eyeballs are better than no eyeballs."

There are factors that make people podcast.  There are factors that make people stop.  Those factors are based, in part, on how many podcasts are out there, how many listeners there are, and how long a podcast has run and, indeed, how long podcasting has been in existance.  I *think* that there are more podcasts out there, right now, than the current number of listeners can support based on all the other factors.

I have no proof, it's just a guess.  There are over 10,000 active podcasts out there, by the way, and maybe 30,000 or more podcasts have been created in the past 2 years.  I don't have listener numbers right now and I have to get my hair cut for the wedding, so someone else can look 'em up

[Clym Angus]

Hmmm interesting carrying on the "natural selection" theme; I was just trying to think what kinds of selection are going on on the internet that would effect the life time of a podcast? Interest doesn't directly effect the survival of a podcast (at the moment) althought it can indirectly effect the individual podcasters will to continue. So I think I've ground it down to these main things;

1) Will to start and continue: Without this nothing ever gets off the ground. Will can be effected by a HUGE number of different real world and internet variables.
2) Access to kit: Without the kit it ain't happening
3) Cost: weather it's server space rental (and bandwidth) or upkeep of personal server systems.
4) Security: Yes, much like taking out a site it's technically possible to podjack an rss feed or play switcharoo with mp3 files. Could be devestating to a popular pod cast if your "Childrens Books" podcast is suddenly switched with wall to wall swearing.


So already extrapolating out we're seeing the kind of things that might have a healthy life span. Topic specific, with something that the author is involved in or has a strong interest in (1). They'll be technical people eather heading up or being involved (2,4), and they'll have at least some form of disposable or budgeted income they can throw at the podservice.

The next step as I see it is broadening access via a "yourtube" like audio storage house that can be linked to (unless this has already happened and I'm way behind the times) I think the internet archive has something approching that. So yeah. Cool.

[Planet Retcon]

As someone with an unpopular show (I get less downloads of the Good Music Show than there are episodes) I can tell you there is a decent relationship between number of listeners and likelihood of show getting produced.  I'm probably going to stop doing the show.  Now, I didn't decide to stop it because I'm not getting the listeners, but if I had 300 listeners, I'd likely NOT stop it.

[Clym Angus]

I don't know, you won a parsec, that's got to count for something.

[Planet Retcon]

Believe me, it does.  But we won the Parsec for Planet Retcon, not the Good Music Show.  PRC is in no danger of dying, believe me!

But the Good Music Show is more work than it's worth to me, at this time.  I may pick it back up, but after episode 10 it's on a semiperminant hiatus at best.

[Clym Angus]

Well, to a certain extent, it could be said that any music show is going to have to "fight for air" in todays climate. Lets face it, there are a lot of them out there.

Also as they appear to be mostly content stitching productions (by and large) really the only creative input for the producer is the "seam" work, not very gratifying.
It does however fulfill everyones want and need (at least once in their life) to be a DJ.

Audio drama/sitcom/whatever for my money offers a bit more of a buzz, yes it is more labour intensive but it's creation more than stitching if you see what I mean.
Also producer wise there still relatively low numbers of people involved giving everyone a better chance of getting heard by the audience.

[Planet Retcon]

Yeah.  The big (read: only) reason for doing the GMS was to force me to organize my music collection.  However, for the past month I've done no organizing and have instead spent my music-collection-ordering time trying to get in touch with bands to play their music.  The bands have been EXTREMELY gracious, and I've yet to get a "no" response, but still, that's not the point of the show.

I have no desire to "be a DJ" though I actually like my DJ voice